Is the Aquaculture Industry Caught In a Fishmeal Trap?
The world hunger crisis is growing larger and increased aquaculture production could be a way to ease the situation. However, carnivorous aquaculture production does currently require fishmeal which only exists at a limited supply and this has led some to believe that the future growth of the aquaculture sector will be restrained – caught in a fishmeal trap. Cointegration analysis on the fishmeal and soybean meal price show that these raw materials have historically been considered as substitutes, but that this relationship has weakened as the aquaculture industry has expanded. Research programs aimed at reducing the fishmeal inclusion rate in fish feed diets have already come a long way, and it is likely that an aquaculture feed pellet containing minimal amounts of fishmeal one day will be possible. The growth of the aquaculture sector will therefore in the short-term be influenced by the availability of fishmeal, but it is not likely that the industry will be locked in a fishmeal trap in the long-run.
By Gunnar Nordahl
Guiding professor: Rögnvaldur Hannesson
Master Thesis in Economic Analysis (ECO)
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